Austin Housing Market Slows as Pending Contracts Fall 10.8%
The Austin real estate market is seeing a measurable slowdown in contract activity as pending home sales for the first five months of 2025 have fallen to their lowest level since 2012. Between January and May, only 18,163 homes have gone under contract in the Austin-area MLS. This marks a 10.8% decline from the same period in 2024 and stands in sharp contrast to the market highs of recent years.
This year’s figure not only represents a significant year-over-year drop but also a multi-year low in market momentum. From 2015 to 2022, the Austin market regularly surpassed 22,000 pending contracts by the end of May, peaking at 24,787 in 2021. Even in 2023, contract activity remained robust at 23,200, before falling to 20,372 in 2024. The cumulative pending count for 2025 reflects a two-year decline of over 6,000 contracts—a clear sign that buyer activity has slowed considerably.
Despite the sharp decline, the 2025 figure is still 1.5% above the long-term historical average dating back to 2000 but keep in mind that the population has increased dramatically, adjusted for population, the number of pending is in record low territory. That said, it underscores how far the market has shifted from the high-demand environment of the previous decade. With elevated inventory levels, rising price sensitivity, and increased time on market, many buyers are taking a more cautious approach this year.
The slowdown in pending contracts also correlates with other weakening indicators across the Austin housing market. The New Listing to Pending Ratio—a key absorption metric—has dropped to 0.55 for May and 0.66 year to date, significantly below the 25-year average of 0.81. This means more homes are coming onto the market than are going under contract, adding further upward pressure on inventory. Sellers must navigate this environment by adjusting pricing strategies and preparing for longer selling timelines.
At Team Price Real Estate, we monitor cumulative pending data daily and analyze its relationship to active listings, absorption rates, and long-term sales trends. We compile and publish over 2,000 pages of market intelligence weekly, covering the top 30 cities and 75 ZIP codes across the greater Austin area. This level of tracking allows us to provide hyper-local guidance to buyers, sellers, and investors who need clarity during a shifting cycle.
While the overall pending count is down, local variation still plays a large role. Some submarkets are experiencing stronger engagement than others, especially where inventory remains balanced or pricing has adjusted appropriately. However, the broader trend is one of declining contract velocity, a reflection of changing buyer behavior and heightened market awareness.
The 2025 data point doesn’t signal the end of growth in the Austin housing market—it marks a recalibration. The current pace of sales, while slower than recent peaks, remains healthier than in past downturns. But as pending sales drop to levels not seen in over a decade, both buyers and sellers must adjust to a more deliberate, data-driven real estate environment.
Scroll down to explore the full chart and year-by-year comparison of pending contract activity from 2000 to 2025.
Frequently Asked Questions – Cumulative Pending Sales in Austin
1. What are cumulative pending home sales?
Cumulative pending home sales represent the total number of properties that have gone under contract over a specific time period—in this case, from January through May. It reflects how many buyers have committed to purchasing homes, regardless of whether the transactions have closed.
2. How do 2025 pending sales compare to previous years in Austin?
Pending sales for Jan–May 2025 total 18,163, down 10.8% from 2024 and the lowest level since 2012. By contrast, 2021 saw a record 24,787 pending sales in the same period. The 2025 figure is also well below the recent five-year average, indicating a slower market.
3. What does a decline in cumulative pending mean for buyers and sellers?
For sellers, fewer pending contracts mean more competition and longer days on market. They may need to price more aggressively or offer concessions. For buyers, the slowdown creates opportunity: more inventory, less urgency, and stronger negotiating power.
4. Is Austin’s real estate market crashing or just slowing?
The market is not crashing but is undergoing a correction. Pending sales are down, but new listing activity remains high and long-term demand drivers in the Austin region are still present. The slowdown is a sign of normalization after years of elevated activity.
5. How can I track pending sales for my ZIP code or neighborhood?
Team Price Real Estate tracks this data daily and publishes detailed, ZIP code–specific reports. Our platform includes over 2,000 pages of market analysis, allowing buyers and sellers to stay informed about real-time conditions in their exact market area.
